Terrebonne: Bleu Country, Red Moment?
In the heart of nationalist Quebec, Mark Carney is walking on water. Terrebonne is where we find out if it holds.
The last time a Liberal represented Terrebonne in Ottawa, Jimmy Carter was in the White House and a 9-year-old named Justin Trudeau spent his days running around the grounds at 24 Sussex. Provincially, the Liberal Party of Quebec last won it in 1973.
That’s not just trivia. It tells you how unnatural this moment is.
Terrebonne is ground zero for nationalist Quebec. This is not where Liberals win.
And yet, one week out, it’s a coin toss. If anything, the Liberals have a slight edge.
The Archetype of a “Bleu” Riding
A bleu stronghold for nearly half a century, Terrebonne is one of the most uniformly francophone ridings in Canada. It went decisively to Brian Mulroney in the 1980s as part of his grand coalition. Then came Meech Lake, Charlottetown, and the birth of the Bloc Québécois, forged by figures like Lucien Bouchard and the late Jean Lapierre, my political mentor.
While some nationalist travellers like Lapierre returned to the federalist fold, Terrebonne voters did not. They stayed bleu.
Except once.
In 2011, Jack Layton’s NDP blew the doors open, winning the riding by 21 points on the strength of an Orange Wave few saw coming.
Quebec does this. When it moves, it moves fast, and in numbers.
Terrebonne put itself on loan once. It may be prepared to do so again, this time to give Prime Minister Mark Carney a stronger mandate to navigate a period of global instability.
Carney’s Quebec Surge Put to the Test
Quebec is where Carney is currently strongest. Léger puts his approval at +34, his best in the country. The Liberals sit at 46 percent, the Bloc at 31, and notably, 43 percent of Bloc voters say they are satisfied with the Carney government.
Even moments that would normally stick, Steven Guilbeault’s resignation, criticism of Carney’s Plains of Abraham speech, have had limited impact.
That doesn’t mean it’s permanent. But it does mean it’s real.
And Terrebonne is where we test how real.
The Liberals Are All-In
The Liberal operation in Terrebonne is operating at a scale rarely seen in a by-election.
The timing is no accident. The Liberal Party of Canada holds its national convention in Montreal from April 9 to 11, the three days immediately preceding the vote. The Big Red Machine will be on hand all weekend. By the time the convention wraps on April 11, with Carney set to address the convention, the entire Liberal apparatus will pour into the riding for a 48-hour sprint. Health Minister Marjorie Michel, MP for Papineau and the Prime Minister’s Quebec organizer, is running the ground operation personally.
Then there’s money. As my colleague Fred DeLorey has noted, because the Liberals are contesting multiple by-elections, they effectively benefit from a national spending ceiling far exceeding that of the Bloc, which is limited to a single riding. In a race born of a one-vote margin, that asymmetry is structural.
A Bloc in a Bind
This is still very much up for grabs for the Bloc. They are the home team, with deep roots in the riding, a better-known candidate, and a history that runs through every kitchen table in the riding. The Liberal machine has resources and momentum. The Bloc has belonging.
Yet the Bloc’s message is revealing. It is explicitly telling nationalist voters they can support the Bloc with a clear conscience — that Carney will remain Prime Minister regardless.
That’s a rational argument. But it’s also a tell.
What’s missing is the argument the Bloc would normally make: that a Liberal win here delivers a functional majority that could shut the Bloc out from its current position of influence in Parliament. Instead of raising the stakes, the Bloc is lowering them. Parties that believe they have momentum don’t campaign on the idea that the other side will govern anyway.
This suggests Bloc leader Yves-François Blanchet understands the moment. Voters are looking for stability and are increasingly comfortable with Carney delivering it.
Yet the sovereigntist network is engaged. Blanchet is on the ground. So is Parti Québécois Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon.
But Quebec is not in a sovereigntist mood, and the historical data suggests this is not an accident. In periods of geopolitical or economic instability, soft nationalist voters shift toward stability and support for the sovereignty option drops. It happened after the 2008 financial crisis. It happened during COVID. And it is happening again as Donald Trump disrupts the global order and Quebecers look for steady hands.
A Liberal victory in Terrebonne would represent proof positive that Carney’s current polling numbers are no mirage, though it is worth tempering expectations about what it would mean in the long-term. Terrebonne will not suddenly become Liberal country. The vote, if it comes, will be on loan: a pragmatic expression of trust in Carney’s leadership at a difficult moment, not a permanent realignment of a riding’s political identity. Soft nationalist voters are lending their support. They can take it back.
There is one more dynamic worth watching. The Bloc has long cultivated a posture of electoral swagger, always ready, always willing, never afraid of a general election. That posture may look somewhat different on the morning of April 14 if the voters of Terrebonne have delivered their verdict. A loss in a riding this francophone, this historically sovereigntist, and this symbolically loaded would not just be a by-election result. It would be a warning shot for the short to medium term, and the kind that tends to quiet the swagger considerably.
If Terrebonne delivers, the image will speak for itself: the bluest of nationalist ridings, handing a working majority to an anglophone Prime Minister with an imperfect but earnest command of French. No editorial will need to explain what that means. Quebec’s priorities will have spoken for themselves.
Éric-Antoine Ménard is Vice-President at NorthStar Public Affairs and head of its operations in Québec.
Next Monday will be VERY interesting! On va voir.